MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s conservative People’s Party (PP) is neck and neck with the ruling Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) ahead of a July 23 election, but a left-wing coalition would be more likely to secure a majority, an opinion poll showed on Wednesday.
The poll, which was carried out by the state-owned Centre for Sociological Studies (CIS) between June 8 and 27, showed the opposition PP with 31.4% of the votes and the PSOE on 31.2%. It had a margin of error of one percentage point.
A similar poll carried out by CIS between May 31 and June 7 put the PP on 30.7%, just behind the PSOE on 31.2%.
CIS estimated that the voting forecasts in the latest poll would give the PP between 122 and 140 seats in the 350-member lower house, with the PSOE winning between 115 and 135 seats. Far-right party Vox – the PP’s most likely coalition ally – would win between 21 and 29 seats.
CIS – which is headed by a Socialist and has faced questions over its independence from opposition figures – said that meant a rightist alliance composed of the PP and Vox would fall short of an absolute majority.
The national election called by Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez after a disastrous showing in regional elections in May is shaping into a binary choice between those opposed to a government that includes Vox and those who oppose the current ruling coalition with far-left Podemos.
Sumar, a new party grouping Podemos and other far-left groups, would get between 43 and 50 seats, CIS said, potentially allowing Sanchez to clinch another term.
The PP has led in opinion polls since Sanchez called the surprise snap election on May 29, but all voter surveys have found the party would need support from Vox to form a government.
(Reporting by Inti Landauro; Editing by Aislinn Laing and Helen Popper)
