(Reuters) – Traders no longer expect a rate hike of 50 basis points by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week as the surprise collapse of lender SVB Financial Group rattles the banking sector.
The current projection is for a 25 bps move, with some even expecting no hike at all.
That is a quick reversal in expectations after a sharp fall in weekly jobless claims and hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell had prompted traders to see a near 70% chance of a 50 bps rate hike.
Following are rate expectations from major Wall Street Banks:
Bank Current expectation Expectation before SVB
crisis
March hike Terminal March hike Terminal rate
(in bps) rate (in bps)
Goldman No hike 5.25% – 5.5% 25 5.5% – 5.75%
JPM 25 5% – 5.25% 25 5% – 5.25%
Citi 50 5.5% – 5.75% 50 5.5% – 5.75%
BofA 25 5.25% – 5.5% 25 5.25% – 5.5%
Barclays 50 5.5% – 5.75% 25 5.25% – 5.5%
(Compiled by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)
